Comprehensive Summary of the Discussion with Scott Horton
This discussion with Scott Horton, a prominent critic of US foreign policy and interventionism, delves deeply into the history and consequences of the "Wars on Terror" and broader American foreign policy decisions since the end of the Cold War. Horton argues that these interventions have been profoundly costly, largely unjustified, and driven by entrenched interests.
The Cost of the Wars on Terror [0:56]
Horton cites the Cost of War Project from Brown University to illustrate the staggering human toll of the post-9/11 conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, and Yemen:
* Direct Deaths: Estimated 900,000 to 940,000.
* Indirect Deaths: Estimated 3.6 to 3.8 million.
* Financial Cost: \$8 trillion, with Iraq costing \$2.9 trillion and Afghanistan \$2.2 trillion.
* The devastation in Afghanistan included a sharp rise in food insecurity (from 62% to 92%) and poverty (from 80% to 97%).
Horton also stresses the immense psychological cost to veterans, noting an estimated 37,000 veteran suicides since the wars began [2:47].
Mechanisms of Misdirection and Bureaucratic Inertia [7:53]
Horton explains that government decision-making is often divorced from the "national interest," instead prioritizing the self-preservation and interests of those in power [8:24]. He references Daniel Ellsberg's description of government work existing on a separate plane from truth and falsity, leading to an "unwillingness to make change" even when policies fail [9:25]. The military apparatus is described as a "self-licking ice cream cone," creating chaos that then justifies its own continued existence and funding [10:26].
Historical Threads of Interventionism [5:13]
The conversation traces a complex line of historical decisions:
1. Post-Vietnam: Nixon increased arms sales to the Shah of Iran to compensate the military-industrial complex [5:46].
2. Iran Revolution (1979): Despite warnings, US officials mishandled the transition, initially believing they could manage Ayatollah Khomeini [7:21].
3. Baiting the Soviets (1979): The US deliberately provoked Soviet intervention in Afghanistan to inflict a costly, drawn-out conflict, aiming to cure the "Vietnam Syndrome" in the American public [27:36].
4. US Support for Saddam Hussein (1980s): The US backed Saddam during the Iran-Iraq War, partly to contain the Iranian revolution and leverage oil interests, even providing precursors for his chemical weapons program [37:29, 44:42]. This era also saw the Iran-Contra scandal involving CIA drug trafficking to fund Contras [38:00].
Iraq War I and the Birth of the Neocon Agenda [53:30]
The goal of the 1991 Gulf War was twofold: to expel Iraq from Kuwait and to defeat "Vietnam Syndrome" by providing a short, successful military showcase [59:40]. The justification relied on hoaxes, notably the Iraqi incubator story [62:46].
Horton then details the rise of the neoconservative movement, highlighting the 1992 Defense Planning Guidance advocating for total world domination and preventing any near-peer competitors [6:34, 9:63].
Israel's Central Role and the "Clean Break" [1:15:48]
Horton asserts that Israel’s interests are often contrary to those of the US, and the Iraq War was significantly driven by Israeli strategic goals.
* The "Clean Break" strategy (1996) by Netanyahu allies explicitly called for overthrowing Saddam Hussein to neutralize Iran's influence and create an oil pipeline to Haifa, Israel, thereby replacing Iranian oil access lost due to Israeli provocations against Iran [1:64:02, 1:65:58].
* The US war effort in Iraq ultimately empowered Shiite factions aligned with Iran, a result that forced a policy "redirection" under Bush toward Sunni allies like Saudi Arabia to counter Iran [3:00:08].
* Hamas's rise was reportedly bolstered by Israeli policy to divide Palestinians and create a pretext for continuous conflict ("control the height of the flame") [4:42:07].
* The October 7th attack, while horrific, is contextualized as a response to Netanyahu’s success in eliminating the possibility of a Palestinian state, as revealed in secret recordings [4:56:30].
The Ukraine War and Escalation [5:54:50]
Horton argues the Ukraine war was provoked by years of US/NATO encroachment, violating promises made to Russia after the Cold War [5:43:07]. He stresses that Russia’s security concerns regarding NATO expansion and potential US missile placement in Ukraine were genuine, even if Putin’s military response was extreme [5:59:44]. He notes that Ukrainian forces are now dominated by far-right, nationalist elements, potentially leading to a long, unwinnable conflict for the US-backed side [6:17:26].
Key Takeaways and Actionable Insights
- Challenge Narratives: The primary defense against disastrous foreign policy is to reject the government's narrative and refuse to give authorities the benefit of the doubt, especially during crises [1:04:03, 1:59:37].
- Anti-War Resources: Regularly consulting sources like Anti-War.com is vital for an accurate understanding of global events [1:25:07].
- Diplomacy Over Force: In the case of Iran, diplomacy is the only realistic path, as threats and military strikes only incentivize nuclear proliferation [4:03:40].
- Root Cause: Many modern conflicts stem from US policies serving foreign interests (like Israel's) rather than American security or prosperity [5:07:00].